By Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko
There is an obvious irony in the country at the moment marked by the factually error-prone assumption by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration that maintains that the economy is recovering and is on a sustainable growth path. Official data support parts of this position, but household-level data show that most Nigerians continue to face severe economic hardship. From a human rights perspective, the key test is whether macroeconomic growth is translating into the realization of the right to food, decent work, and an adequate standard of living. This is the heart of the matter.
Last week, the spokesperson of President Tinubu, Mr. Bayo Onanuga made a highly unproven claim that the story about mass hunger in Nigeria is not true. He said he made a tour by road from Ogun State to Lagos State or so, and he saw public works such as highway construction going on and he saw that many ordinary people were going about their daily tasks which gives him the impression that all is well with Nigerians. This claim by Onanuga is simplistic and lacks logical grounding. The truth is that even the president has personally pleaded with Nigerians to exercise patience and that the economic reforms his administration is implementing, would inevitably lift millions of Nigerians away from poverty. So if the president acknowledge that there is hardship in Nigeria, why is his appointees Mr. Bayo Onanuga making a contradictory claim? Anyway, the government broadly, feels that it is getting it fine with rebuilding the national economy.
What the President Tinubu’s government points to: Gross Domestic Product growth and macroeconomic stability:
The National Bureau of Statistics reports that real Gross Domestic Product growth picked up in 2025 after rebasing the national accounts to 2019. Growth was 3.13 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 1, January to March 2025, accelerated to 4.23 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 2, April to June 2025, and was 3.98 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 3, July to September 2025. The full-year 2025 estimate is 3.87 percent, with Quarter 4, October to December 2025 at 4.07 percent Year-on-Year.
International institutions project continued expansion. The International Monetary Fund forecasts 4.0 percent growth in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026. The World Bank projects 4.2 percent in 2025, rising to 4.4 percent by 2027.
Other indicators cited by government include: Gross Domestic Product of $285.003 billion nominal and $2.254 trillion in Purchasing Power Parity for 2025; foreign exchange reserves above $42 billion; a current account surplus of 6.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product in the first half of 2025; and a projected decline in public debt from 42.9 percent to 39.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product. Headline inflation eased from 34.80 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January 2025 after the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index. The National Bureau of Statistics recorded 15.69 percent in April 2026, while the International Monetary Fund estimates 16.0 percent for 2026.
The reality on the ground: Rising poverty, food insecurity, and constrained livelihoods. This is a generally agreed factually accurate report from the streets.
The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update states that poverty increased to 63 percent in 2025, or approximately 140 million Nigerians living below the poverty line. This is up from 56 percent in 2023 and 61 percent in 2024. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects 141 million Nigerians, or 62 percent, will be poor in 2026.
Food affordability is the most acute pressure point. The World Bank reports that the cost of a basic food basket has increased five times since 2019, with poor households spending up to 70 percent of income on food. The World Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria stated: “Food inflation is the biggest tax on the poor”. The International Monetary Fund also flagged that 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in the second half of 2025.
Besides, real household welfare is deteriorating. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that while nominal household spending grew 19.6 percent to 139.3 trillion Naira in 2025, real spending contracted by 2.5 percent after inflation. Labour groups argue that Gross Domestic Product figures are disconnected from living conditions, describing the situation as “growth without development”. Official unemployment is estimated at 4.9 percent for 2025, but informal employment remains very high at 92.8 percent according to National Bureau of Statistics and International Labour Organization estimates.
Why growth is not reaching most Nigerians: An exclusionary pattern:
Analysts attribute the gap to the structure of growth. Expansion is concentrated in services and capital-intensive industry, while agriculture, which employs most poor people, is lagging. The International Monetary Fund projects per-capita income growth of only 0.6 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026, which is too low to reduce poverty in a meaningful way. ActionAid Nigeria notes that the federal budget rose from $3.1 billion in 1999 to $36 billion in 2025, yet poverty increased from 42.7 percent to 61 percent over the same period.
The World Bank frames this as a rights and policy challenge: “The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians — especially the poor and vulnerable”. It recommends removing trade barriers, improving fiscal transparency, and expanding social protection through regular cash transfers.
Conclusion
By macroeconomic measures, Nigeria’s economy is growing faster, inflation is down from its peak, and external buffers are stronger. However, with poverty at 63 percent, food costs rising sharply, and real household spending declining, growth has not yet produced broad-based improvements in living standards. Until policy links Gross Domestic Product growth to agriculture, jobs, and food affordability, many Nigerians will continue to experience what labour groups describe as “growth without development”. (Authoritative sources: National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Nigeria Development Update, International Monetary Fund, PricewaterhouseCoopers, ActionAid Nigeria.)
*EMMANUEL NNADOZIE ONWUBIKO is the founder of the HUMAN RIGHTS WRITERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA and was NATIONAL COMMISSIONER OF THE NATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION OF NIGERIA.