Nigeria’s long-running struggle to break free from fuel import dependency has entered a new and unpredictable phase, as two influential civic groups accuse powerful oil-sector interests of mounting a coordinated pushback against domestic refining.
In a twist that reframes the Federal Government’s recent suspension of the 15% petroleum import duty, the Yoruba Council Worldwide (YCW) and the Nigeria Coalition Group (NCG) say the move has little to do with protecting ordinary Nigerians — and everything to do with an entrenched fuel import cartel fighting for survival.
What began as a routine fiscal adjustment has now opened a new front in the battle for control of Nigeria’s downstream economy.
The government justified the suspension by citing “panic buying pressures.” But the civic groups flatly dismissed that explanation, insisting that no queues or scarcity have been recorded anywhere in the country.
“The panic is coming from the cabals, not Nigerians,” said Aare Oladotun Hassan, President of the YCW, who co-signed the joint declaration.
They argue that the real panic lies within the network of major fuel importers — a bloc that has for decades dominated the petroleum economy, from pricing to supply chains.
At the heart of the controversy is the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery, whose entry threatens to upend the economics of fuel importation.
The coalition claims that full implementation of the 15% duty would tip the market decisively toward domestic refining, making fuel importation significantly less lucrative.
Instead, they accuse a powerful alliance — including DAPPMAN, IPMAN, PENGASSAN, and NUPENG — of orchestrating a strategic pushback aimed at undermining the refinery’s operations.
“Even with 50% crude supply, Dangote can meet all of Nigeria’s fuel demand at lower prices,” said the groups, warning that depriving the refinery of adequate crude is part of an economic chess game to keep the fuel import cycle alive.
In some of the most contentious claims yet, the groups allege that PENGASSAN President Festus Osifo has been at the centre of attempts to interrupt operations at the Dangote Refinery — including purported internal sabotage incidents that they say caused losses of up to ₦30 billion.
They further accuse him of spearheading a “monopoly scare campaign” designed to discredit the refinery while lobbying the government to remove import tariffs that shield importation interests.
Petitions have reportedly been submitted to the EFCC, DSS, and the Nigeria Police Force demanding a full investigation.
The Lagos solidarity march in which thousands dressed in white and jeans, symbolized what the groups describe as a national call for “economic liberation.”
Their demands centre on a sweeping overhaul of the fuel supply framework — calling for the reinstatement of the 15% import duty, a complete ban on PMS and AGO importation, the allocation of 100% crude supply to the Dangote Refinery, and firm protection for all local refiners against what they describe as persistent sabotage and economic undermining.
They formally submitted these demands to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and Speaker Mudashiru Obasa for transmission to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The civic groups defended Aliko Dangote as a “patriotic investor” whose refinery has the capacity to secure Nigeria’s fuel supply long-term. They highlighted the refinery’s tank farms, which they say can store enough fuel to sustain the country for up to a year — a detail they believe importers fear because it could collapse their business model.
Energy analysts say the controversy reflects a deeper clash of interests at a historic moment.
If the 15% duty is restored, importers could lose their long-held dominance.
If the suspension holds, the Dangote Refinery — a project touted as a national turning point — may struggle to reach full potential.
Beyond the accusations, the bigger question remains:
What kind of fuel economy does Nigeria want?
The Presidency now faces a defining choice between two distinct futures: A domestically driven refining ecosystem, anchored by massive local capacity; or
A continuation of the import-reliant status quo, where global markets and local intermediaries shape the price of fuel.
With tensions rising and allegations multiplying, the government’s next steps could determine whether Nigeria finally breaks free from the cycle of fuel import dependency — or becomes further entrenched in it.